Ideas for mid-late Nov.

[big_load]

It's time for a few weeks in AZ, so I'm asking a follow-up to some old questions.

1. What are the chances of snow in the Blue Range between Nov 10 and the end of the month? Will I get stuck in a rental car if I go for Hannagan Meadow? I don't mind cold nights, but I'd like to avoid a long trek in deep snow.

2. How about the Cabin Loop? (same two questions)

3. Has anyone been to the Deer Creek TH in the Galiuros lately in a non-4wd, low-clearance vehicle. I'm not sure I want try it again in a rental car.

I sure wish I were here in time for the great cross-Supes death march, but I'll surely get in a few nights there while I'm out.

[Hoffmaster]

I can't answer 2 or 3, but I'd say that snow is a possibility in the Blue Range in Nov. Last year, I hiked Escudilla in mid-Oct, and we got inches of snow. The drive down 191 thru Alpine and south to Hannagan Meadow was very challenging in my girlfriend's Ford Focus that she had at the time.

[chumley]

Totally hit or miss. Right now, the long-range forecasts look like it will be mostly dry state-wide all month. Any systems moving though should be weak and not be a problem. But anything can happen and a storm could develop that drops a significant snowfall on any of the locations you mention.

I'd say you have an 80% chance of dry november weather this year, but it's that 20% that makes you need to keep an eye on the forecast -- which you won't have a good idea about until about a week out.

[te_wa]

La Nina year=dry
let me know when you plan on hitting some trails I can come out to join you?

[RedRoxx44]

I used Deer Creek in August and it was in the best shape I have seen it. I still wouldn't want to do it in a rental car.

[big_load]

La Nina year=dry
let me know when you plan on hitting some trails I can come out to join you?

I'll PM you when I figure it all out.

I used Deer Creek in August and it was in the best shape I have seen it. I still wouldn't want to do it in a rental car.

Yeah, it was a real adventure last time in both directions. It was a toss-up whether the rocks or the sand would do me in.

I was also toying with the idea of trying to reach the Garden from the Ash Creek TH.