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Forecast Mormon Grove & Peeley

Crews looking for missing hiker
By Alexis Bechman

November 16, 2010
Tonto Rim Search and Rescue volunteers and Gila County Sheriff officers are currently searching for an overdue hiker.

The man, whose name has not been released, was last heard from nine days ago and is believed to be hiking near the Mt. Peeley trail or Sheep Mountain, off Forest Road 201, southwest of Payson.

The Gila County Sheriff’s Office first received a call that the man was overdue Monday, Nov. 15 about 9 p.m.

“The hiker has not been heard from since Nov. 7 and frequents the Mazatzal Mountain Wilderness area,” according to a press release from the sheriff’s office.

The missing hiker’s vehicle was located at the Mt. Peeley trailhead.



Six TRSAR volunteers are currently searching the ground. Earlier Tuesday, a Department of Public Safety Ranger helicopter did an aerial search of the area, but found no signs of the man

MtnResq30 wrote:Hike AZ folks,
My name is David Bremson of Maricopa County Sheriff's Office Mountain Rescue/ Central Arizona Mountain Rescue Association. We are the primary team involved in the search for Joe (with outstanding assistance from Gila County/TRSAR).

Thanks for taking the effort to get in touch with us. It means a lot to me, at least, and I certainly hope you are successful in finding Joe.

-If you do decide to search for him and you find him, please do not approach him or touch him or his equipment in any way. This will inhibit our ability to conduct an investigation in to the incident.

This does not sound good.

Don't you think that there is a difference between "6000 people" and a hand full of experienced hikers? How can we possibly sit around and wait while time ticks by and chances get smaller and smaller that Joe is still surviving. I know this is not a thought that any of us want to voice but it is reality and I believe we need to act now. We will keep our vehicles out of the TH area and your request for one representative to coordinate our efforts with those already searching is a reasonable one and can be done. We will follow your advise given earlier in the thread and be very diligent in our safety measures but some of us feel that it is imperative that our eyes/feet be used to help find our friend sooner than later...

I'm going to help out with the search. I'll pick an out of the way TH and head towards the search area.

hikngrl wrote:Don't you think that there is a difference between "6000 people" and a hand full of experienced hikers? How can we possibly sit around and wait while time ticks by and chances get smaller and smaller that Joe is still surviving. I know this is not a thought that any of us want to voice but it is reality and I believe we need to act now. We will keep our vehicles out of the TH area and your request for one representative to coordinate our efforts with those already searching is a reasonable one and can be done. We will follow your advise given earlier in the thread and be very diligent in our safety measures but some of us feel that it is imperative that our eyes/feet be used to help find our friend sooner than later...

I feel the same way Diane.

I do think the SAR folks are just doing their job warning folks about the danger and also concerned about the limited space issue at the TH etc.

But personally I feel the way you do. At this point the more folks are looking for Joe the better chance we have on finding him. You are all such wonderful friends!

Looks like I can get there on Sunday.

Do we know the brand of boot Joe was wearing? Can we get an image of the tread pattern? and size? Sometimes the clue is a positive ID of bootprint and direction of travel. So be alert to anything unusual. Surveyor tape can be helpful (clean up after).

David's suggestion of one representative is helpful. Will we have a command post or a way to check in with that representative. Are we using Channel 15.

With the number of people planning to show up, just between this site and Arizona Hikers, I think we need to establish a command post of some sort right off the side of highway 87. There's plenty of space there for parking, coordinating efforts, etc. and is a spot everyone will HAVE to pass to get into the area anyway.

Centralized communications, check-in/check-out, weather monitoring, shuttling, coordinating where teams go out to, and even rescue for volunteers can be handled MUCH better if we keep a small command post running. It can also help to keep traffic down on the road which is going to need to be kept clear for MCSO SAR operations as much as possible. It wouldn't take much to toss up a big board with a map on it and start tracking what's happening. Official SAR wants us to be as coordinated as possible, and I think that's a great idea.

I'm not much of one for directing operations, but I'm a radio operator, have some idea what I'm doing, and can help out a lot at the base.

Cabel might make a good candidate for running the show there as he has done SAR before and knows the area quite well.

The LAST thing we want is to have people wandering all over, no coordination, duplication of efforts, having our own folks getting lost/injured, etc.


Edit: For anyone planning to be out in the field, I think a good basic supply list might look something like:

6+ liters of water/gatorade/electrolyte drinks
First aid kit
GPS
Flashlight
Rope/paracord
Multitool
Trekking poles
GMRS radio (HAM if you have it)
Binoculars
Food
Emergency shelter/space blanket
Detailed maps
Compass
Firestarters
lightweight jacket (weather is looking a bit iffy)
SPOT satellite transmitter
Spare batteries
Good comfortable boots
Sunscreen

I wish I could go and help this weekend, but my thoughts will be there. Still hoping for good news but as each day passes it gets more discouraging.

I am willing to run the command post if everyone wants. If someone wants to do this it is great.

Preston Sands wrote:Like laztazam said...
Having considered hiking Sheep Mountain myself in the past, if I had made it to the summit and was looking for an easier/faster return hike to the Peeley Trailhead due to difficulty of the mountain crest or shortage of daylight, I would seriously consider descending to the Thicket Spring Trail. Joe would have only had a slim crescent moon illuminating the area on the night on the 8th.

A few months ago, both Joe and I bought a very high powered headlight lamp and this is standard equipment in our backs, I know he never leaves it behind.

My wife and I hiked the Little Saddle Mtn trail last weekend in to Saddle Mtn trail and back. We did not come across anything to report.

Having seen a few of these searchs pan out on our jeep club website, its best to listen to the professionals. We all have a lot a backcountry experience, but that was for fun or challenge. The SAR teams have been trained specifically for this. Most of us have not and would miss any number of indications. Its hard NOT to do something, but ultimately Joe's rescue is better served by the ones with the most experience.

If you must go out, I suggest looking in areas FAR from the main search zone. Stick to designated trails and take binoculars. I'm very familiar with the Sunflower Mine loop Jeep trail(FR 25) and can offer to take people on that route. Its pretty well traveled and if he would have stumble on it, he'd have been found by now. But I only want to go out there if we will be out of the way of the SAR group.

I have nothing but respect for the SAR teams and don't want to get in their way. I also understand that in thick growth, searchers could be passing fairly close to him or clues-- even with dogs. Let's face it, how many folks have not been found in the Supes in the past year or so? If nothing else, going over what SAR has already done with new eyes can't hurt-- even spreading out further along the obvious drainage areas could be useful. I totally understand they don't want us complicating things, but if that weather hits-- all these minor clues they're trained to look for will be gone.

I agree with tough boots. I respect MCSO and the SAR teams but this is a very dense area. I do think we need to be slow and methodical in our search and really look for clues that someone has passed before us. We also need to be careful that we don't get injured and need rescue ourselves.

Regarding Joe's boots, I got this information which is not very specific, "he alternates. However recently he bought a heavy duty Merrel. He also likes wearing New Balance and loves the airy Vasque Breeze." Maybe MCSO will have a boot pattern they believe is his that they will be willing to share with those of us who notice such things.

I also recommend anyone showing up Saturday morning, keep watch of the AZH thread since concrete meeting places and times are being made.
http://www.arizonahikers.com/forum/view ... sc&start=0

According to a SAR person I spoke with yesterday, the visibility is about 10' in the search area. Anyone planning on going absolutely must have a GPS and know how to use it as a map and compass is insufficient. This is a high risk area for injuries even for experienced hikers and the last thing needed is secondary issues. Setting up a command center coordinating efforts is important for the reasons Thoreau suggested. In addition to a big board, a laptop (with a small inverter) where GPS track logs can be uploaded and downloaded would be a good idea.

I don't know Joe and if I did and was being rational, it would be a hard decision as to rather to go out there. Someone with Joe's experience would have made it out if he wasn't seriously injured. I don't mean to be negative, but If you go, understand this isn't considered a rescue mission at this point, it's considered a body recovery. Be prepared emotionally.

Wow, I hadn't even heard of the visibility issue. That's gonna be rather intense...

Love the laptop idea. I'll see if I can dig something up for that. Anyone else with one available, please bring it! If nothing else, bring the software install for your GPS model, and data cable, just in case (all my stuff is garmin, and USB.)

Zeric wrote:According to a SAR person I spoke with yesterday, the visibility is about 10' in the search area. Anyone planning on going absolutely must have a GPS and know how to use it as a map and compass is insufficient. This is a high risk area for injuries even for experienced hikers and the last thing needed is secondary issues. Setting up a command center coordinating efforts is important for the reasons Thoreau suggested. In addition to a big board, a laptop (with a small inverter) where GPS track logs can be uploaded and downloaded would be a good idea.

I don't know Joe and if I did and was being rational, it would be a hard decision as to rather to go out there. Someone with Joe's experience would have made it out if he wasn't seriously injured. I don't mean to be negative, but If you go, understand this isn't considered a rescue mission at this point, it's considered a body recovery. Be prepared emotionally.

You are so correct. One way or another Joe would have made it even if it took him all night (it happened there once before and he made it out in the early morning hours)

Do we have any folks confirmed as being able to assist in the shuttling aspect? I'd all but call the actual trailhead area off limits to volunteer vehicles to keep it clear for SAR, so if we can guarantee that folks showing up by car can park by the highway and have a ride to wherever they need to get to to hike, that would help a lot.

I know some people are holding off on confirming just because they don't have anything but passenger cars to get there.

Just a quick update on the weather. Saturday looks to be reasonably ok, but will slowly deteriorate, with lowering temperatures and higher winds. There also appears to be a range of solutions from the computer models on this storm, and the "official forecast" that is published is taking a moderate approach. At least one model is predicting considerably more rain/snow than the official forecast. Be prepared for the worst weather option. This storm also has a strong orographic component, which means that precipitation will be enhanced along the south and west-facing slopes. Because the Peely/Sheep Mtn ridgeline is one of the highest ridges in the path of weather coming in from the southwest, it would not be out of the question that local weather there would be worse than it is only a few miles away (at the Beeline Hwy or proposed campsites for instance).

It looks like the snow level will be high enough on Saturday, but may drop as low as 3,500 feet by Sunday night. I would not be surprised if it was snowing at the Peely TH (elev. 5600) by Sunday afternoon. Even if not snow, it is almost certain to be cold and wet. It would not be uncommon for such as storm to envelop these mountains in clouds/fog, thereby reducing visibility further.

A couple of bulletins from NWS (emphasis mine):

THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE PCPN FCST FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS. HAVE CHOSEN TO BASE THE CURRENT FCST ON THE SREF MEANS AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WILDLY DIFFERING POSSIBILITIES. FCST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING HAS ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH WATER EQUIVALENT
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-7 INCHES ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WITH
1-3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MTNS...AND HIGHER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN AZ.

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
ELSEWHERE.

cabel wrote:I am willing to run the command post if everyone wants. If someone wants to do this it is great.

Sounds good to me, it's been suggested over on AZH as well.

Zeric wrote:According to a SAR person I spoke with yesterday, the visibility is about 10' in the search area. Anyone planning on going absolutely must have a GPS and know how to use it as a map and compass is insufficient. This is a high risk area for injuries even for experienced hikers and the last thing needed is secondary issues. Setting up a command center coordinating efforts is important for the reasons Thoreau suggested. In addition to a big board, a laptop (with a small inverter) where GPS track logs can be uploaded and downloaded would be a good idea.

Great idea, we should probably flag down all vehicles and ask where they are headed and reroute as necessary.
I have a netbook with great battery power but no usefull mapping software. If someone has the software, I could help out with that aspect. A larger laptop may be better though

I posted the Above over on AZH.

I have a truck that could be used to shuttle people with lots of room in the back for many.


GTG

I was thinking the same thing as far as vehicles go. Some signs at the entrance area to the effect of 'search volunteers please check in here' or something. Of course, that'll depend on sign real estate. All of those political signs that are still scattered around town are looking like mighty-fine candidates if the backs of them are blank.

Just got done loading a clean copy of windows 7 on a spare laptop here that i'll have available as well. I'll be loading the Garmin software on it, topo, etc. It'll be specifically set up for a Garmin eTrex Vista HCX. Anything else, i can't guarantee without software/drivers being provided.