HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

Yea, it almost seems like the monsoon might be over... Next weekend is only like 10% chance of rain over much of Northern AZ.

We got some pretty decent storms up here. We're at least at average for the year here in Page.

Vaporman wrote:Yea, it almost seems like the monsoon might be over... Next weekend is only like 10% chance of rain over much of Northern AZ.

Its perfectly normal for there to be periods of less activity during the monsoon. A week of low activity at the end of July certainly does not signal the end of the monsoon!

Sheesh, I sure hope not! It has slowed down here a bit, too, although there were scattered showers here yesterday. It poured at one end of town where I was, then I went home and it was dry there. I have had to water my vegetable garden a bit.

An interesting tidbit from the NWS:

With the month coming to a close, preliminary data indicate that July 2009 will be the hottest on record in both Phoenix and Yuma. The data below represent the top ten warmest Julys for Phoenix and Yuma by average high, mean, and low temperatures. For 2009, observational data account for July 1-28 while 29-31 are based on current forecast values. If the official forecast verifies within a few degrees, which is very likely, the rankings below should hold through the next few days as the month ends. This page will be updated through the week. Records for Phoenix began in 1896 and for Yuma in 1878

The data they're referring to:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/pns/2009/July/Brief3.php

So if it felt hot, it was. Tucson is only a little shy of it's record (by a couple tenths of a degree). I attribute it to the lack of cooling from afternoon storms...

The first couple weeks of June were remarkably cool.

In response to joe bartels:
yes it was, even in May it felt more like autumn/early winter than approaching summer for a while. That being said, it's hot now and those days are just happy memories

writelots wrote:An interesting tidbit from the NWS:
So if it felt hot, it was. Tucson is only a little shy of it's record (by a couple tenths of a degree). I attribute it to the lack of cooling from afternoon storms...

Arizona cities will almost always be near setting records now (except during unusually cool months like June) because of the heat island effect. Phoenix and Tucson will never cool down at night like they did historically, and therefore the "average temperature" that the NWS is referring to will continue to rise.

In the past, a day of 115 in PHX would still cool to 80 at night, whereas now a 115 day might only have a low in the mid 90s. That makes a huge difference on the "average" temperature.

chumley wrote: Arizona cities will almost always be near setting records now (except during unusually cool months like June) because of the heat island effect. Phoenix and Tucson will never cool down at night like they did historically, and therefore the "average temperature" that the NWS is referring to will continue to rise.

Gotta love the urban heat island! Too bad it doesn't come with a pitcher of mai-tai and a tan, muscled cabana boy holding a bottle of suntan oil...

Sorry, was that out loud?

chumley wrote:

Vaporman wrote:Yea, it almost seems like the monsoon might be over.

Its perfectly normal for there to be periods of less activity during the monsoon. A week of low activity at the end of July certainly does not signal the end of the monsoon!

I doubt the Monsoon would be over, and yes those breaks between pulses are very common. What is uncommon is that the pulses have been weak, moisture has been scant, and some areas have yet to receive anything. August is usually the peak month, so things might improve, but I do think it is unusual to have dew points as low as they have been, and for the airport in Flag to be reporting <50% of normal for July. Its not like the sky is falling, it's just a little drier than normal, and if most of AZ had not had the wide spread soaking rain in May, we would have some problems.

Still, while some areas have been dry (like my friend by the base of MT Elden who hasn't had anything since a brief heavy storm on July 1), my cave has had 3 good storms that have been very generous with rain, and the last one had tons of great lightning. In fact, things by my place have been so good, that I take back what I said about the Monsoon in Flag not being anything impressive. I had storms on the 1st, the 17th, and the 19th. All of them produced really heavy rainfall rates in a relatively short period that caused soil erosion around gutter downspouts and washed away mulch from the cheaply done landscaping beds. The last two storms (I wasn't there for the one on the 4th, but I saw the effects) had some moderate rain after the heavy rain and helped to soak my shallow, rocky, limestone soils (tortugas soil series). Plus the last one had some incredible lightning with flashes and claps at the same time, and great cloud to ground displays as it moved south of me. I saw the July 4 storm develop and move to the NE when I was out in the Kaibab that day, nothing really unusual about it as it developed over the northern parts of Sycamore Canyon and moved clockwise towards Flagstaff. The last two were very odd from my perspective. Both came from the NE and I watched both develop over me. They were almost completely identical in development and behavior. I would see the clouds moving SW from the Elden-Peaks area. Over the Observatory Mesa area I would start to see one large really dark cloud swirling and then rain would begin to develop and reach the ground. I would also see a cloud east of me over the Mall area or Country Club. I would not see much more than rain or lightning in that area. Then after 10 minutes or so, all of the sudden really heavy rain would come down right on my place, often with little warning (from what was around me) than the smell of moisture, or a few really big drops a few seconds before. Its fun to watch, and is pretty different from what normally happened before this year- an existing storm coming in from the south. I also think my place has had normal to near normal rainfall, the last two storm perhaps delivering 1.5 inches between them. Still the airport is only a few miles away and it reported next to nothing from those storms.

writelots wrote: muscled cabana boy holding a bottle of suntan oil...

Sorry, been I've been at Tewa's lately

Ok, got rained on a little bit up on Escudilla today. Came home and it's HOT here in town. "Hot" in Eagar is maybe 95 or so.

Forget being over, it never really started this year!

fairweather8588 wrote:

writelots wrote: muscled cabana boy holding a bottle of suntan oil...

Sorry, been I've been at Tewa's lately

wtf is wrong with you people!

freaks.

Yeah, it's odd. I posted those photos from the Thompson Trail awhile back, and you can see that area was greener and had more wildflowers than usual. However, after the end of July, the monsoon has really not done much. It may be raining up on Baldy, but over here we have had maybe only about one good rain per week. So then I posted that mtn. bike ride over in Murray Basin on Sunday. (No photos--I plan to go ride it again in a day or two and remember my camera!) I was a little shocked at how dry it is there, especially since it is only about 3 miles from my house. It is really green here in town, but we have ditch irrigation, and lots of deciduous trees, and a lot of very diligent gardeners. Eagar is very beautiful at this time of year--you ought to come see! But the grasslands around our towns never did green up like they normally do. Usually we have about a month in late summer when the grasslands are astonishingly green, and the roadsides are lined with sunflowers. I don't think it's going to happen this year. The only thing that really saved us was the early rain in May, preventing the big June wildfires, and some early monsoon activity in late June/early July. We did have a grass fire of a few hundred acres right next to the G&F White Mountain Grasslands Area a couple weeks ago. Usually at this time of year that grass won't burn.

te-wa wrote:

fairweather8588 wrote:

writelots wrote: muscled cabana boy holding a bottle of suntan oil...

Sorry, been I've been at Tewa's lately

wtf is wrong with you people!

freaks.

Wha? You no wanna share your cabana boy?

Actually, I have to admit that I've been very pleased by the small drop in temps we've seen down here in the last few days. You'd think that there isn't much difference between 100 and 104, but there really is - particularly when you don't have AC in the house. Every degree is precious. Now they're saying we might get more rain this week. Just hope that it doesn't effect my Oak Creek backpack this weekend!

In response to azbackpackr:
I'm looking at hiking to the top of Escudilla this coming weekend. Can you tell me going South out of Springerville which turn off to take to get to the trail head?

The directions are listed on the Escudilla page or here http://hikearizona.com/location_g.php?ZTN=311&XD=5 from Show Low