Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

We enjoyed almost two spring-like days, but winter returns to NJ tomorrow for another week. In a few days, I'll be off to OR, where it's about 20 degrees warmer. It doesn't look like I'll see AZ again until at least late April.

Alex, today's my birthday, which is when I typically put together a group to run the Salt. Last year you came along. The river was running at about 1300 and dropping fast. I ran it the next day with a private group, and it was still dropping. It was a bit bony for big rafts, but fun. It's better at 2000 or more. I met a bunch of private boaters, and thinking I might show up the following year to do runs with them, got their email addresses, etc.

Today the Salt is running at a paltry 259, and dropping. At that level I don't even think you can run in it a ducky.

[Jim]

Yes, it was a dry winter. There is talk of an El Nino for 2014-15 winter, but that is waaaaayyy out there and I don't want to think of that yet. There may be some light precip for NM and parts of northern AZ next week, as there are supposed to be some late season weak lows for California, but it's the dry wind and dry season.

[big_load]

@azbackpackr I can't believe how quickly a year went by. That trip was a lot of fun. I keep an eye on the AZ weather, and everything about it is discouraging. At 259 cfs I bet you could even hike the Salt River bed.

[SuperstitionGuy]

At 259 cfs I bet you could even hike the Salt River bed.

Actually they do and they do it with metal detectors. LOL

[Dschur]

In Payson looks like we average by this time of year almost 7 inches of precipitaion.. but have only had just under two inches...

[Jim]

In spring, or at the end of the season, models aren't always very accurate, but there is a forecast for some level of heavy precipitation for northern California over the next week. Decent totals for much of the rest of the non-SW west, too. We had some light scattered thunderstorms last night, which was actually nice. I observed some lightning to the south and briefly enjoyed the light show.

My guess, is it will be dry for NM and AZ until July.

[chumley]

@Jim_H
I'm counting on a spring storm. Either mid April or early may. 1-2" over favored terrain.

If not, it could be a rodeo-chediski type of year.

[azbackpackr]

Raining here in Valley Center, CA.

[sneakySASQUATCH]

A little bit of rain, warmer temps, and I have 10 deer in my yard mowing my grass for me for the last 1.5 hours.

[hippiepunkpirate]

On tour today: windy as all get-out at every South Rim viewpoint. 3:00PM, Highway 89 north of Cameron at Little Painted Desert: blowing sand/dust combined with rain, a delicious combination. Visibility down to zero at times. 4:45PM, Flagstaff: Snow flurries, none sticking. Light rain along I-40 to Williams. Back in Flag at 7:00PM, Snow flurries blowing near horizontal while gassing up at Sam's Club, still nothing sticking.

[Jim]

Snow in Flag, and we might hit 80 this weekend. It's spring.

[azbackpackr]

Snow in Flag, and we might hit 80 this weekend. It's spring.

WIND in Flag...it's spring.

The rain here in the Golden State sounded great on the roof of my RV. Since the last time it rained things really got green around here. The morning overcast, mists and fog (the "Marine Layer) which are an almost daily occurrence even 20 miles or so inland, as I am, help keep things from drying up.

[Jim]

Today's 7 day QPF is very optimistic, but I have my doubts. With over 9 inches forecast for the northern Sierra, this is very similar to the early February Pine Apple Express, but is it really late for this. Then again, even 1/2 the forecast amount would be great for that area. Maybe the models will be reasonably accurate and the totals will be close to the forecast?

[JimmyLyding]

The storm hitting far northern California now, and hopefully reaching the Bay Area, does look like a pineapple express. Hoping for a lot here. A big storm could really help the water supply up north. Southern California needs the rain the most, though I did see a fair (AKA below average) amount of snow on the transverse ranges on Monday when I was flying from Phoenix to Oakland.
I'm going back to Trinity Lake over the Memorial Day weekend and Lassen National Park over July 4th so I hope those places get buried in precipitation.

[Jim]

There was a dramatic halving of the 7 day QPF between my last post, and the next day(?) or Saturday, so unless there really was over 4 inches of precip, I would say the models were seriously adjusted and totals reduced. Even if it wasn't the 9 inches, 4 is good. Even a little forecast for southern California. None, though, for AZ or NM, really.

For the mountains of California, a drought such as this is nothing new, though just as in Arizona and NM, forest densities in many locations are a lot denser than they were in 1850. The grasslands of the valleys have been almost completely replaced by exotic cool season grasses following droughts coupled with over-grazing 150 years ago. The real impact of concern is the agricultural water supply.

I think this is only the second time since the 1960s, when both the Federal and State water projects were finished, there has been a California drought such as this. I just find that interesting. The drought seems severe, and to some extent it is, but it is also one that is exacerbated by human engineering. If this particular drought is just part of the climatic cycle, then it won't be seen for a few more decades. If it is to become a new normal, then that could be an issue. Still, if you look back at a graph of Sierra Nevada snowfall (total inches not liquid equivalent, but it gives an idea) there has always been huge variability between years. Perhaps, a wet El Nino, such as occurred in 2010 or 2005, will develop this fall and winter 2015 will be a wet one?

[JimmyLyding]

"If it is to become a new normal, then that could be an issue. "
I think the current weather pattern would be a major issue if the last 3 years are any indication. A monster year followed by 2 dry ones is definitely an issue because we're not set up to cope with that.
California's water regime isn't set up to make urban water users feel the pain so they keep using water like they always have (except maybe for a little bit of "if it's yellow, let it mellow"), and agriculture suffers the consequences. The sad thing is that the powers-that-be could double the price of tapwater delivery, and it wouldn't change a thing.

[azbackpackr]

We're supposed to have showers through Thursday. Sunday morning when I was in Black Canyon at Arizona Hot Springs area (Colorado River below Hoover Dam), it was very windy. At least 4 canoes tipped over, I heard. We had to wait until 11 a.m. to launch, but had safe paddling back to Willow Beach. Today I paddled Lake Havasu, gorgeous day, light breeze, but on the way home almost got blown off the 10 near Palm Springs. Having the big kayak on my car didn't help.

So, I don't think the weather can figure itself out right now.

[Jim]

Does it seem to you that this March and April (1st) are cooler than last year? After the warm and mild winter, which was chilly at times but definitely milder than last year, the Spring stalled. After Tucson last March, I came back here to 80s and really nice weather. Granted we had windy and cooler days, but overall temps warmed and it was over 90 by late April. That can still happen, but it was also 80 a lot in March. Someone else suggested it to me today, and I agreed, it is cooler this spring, so far.

[azbackpackr]

Colder than pumpkin here this afternoon, comparatively speaking. (I actually typed "pumpkin," just in case you were wondering which expletive was replaced.) Colder than pumpkin meaning I think it must have been in the high 50's around sunset. Brr! I might have to zip my fleece!

But actually, yes, it has been cooler.

[Jim]

I recall you writing of, and me jealously reading of it, temps nearing 90 in January. It was sometimes in the low to mid 60s, back then, over here. I thought we might be in the mid 80s, daily, in Alamogordo by now. Yesterday and today we did get to the mid 70s, and it was 81 on Sunday, but it has been windy everyday, and that combined with clouds makes it feel cooler. Plus, we have a cool down to the mid-60s coming this weekend. Better than Flag and Kayenta, but I still prefer the Sonoran Desert.