Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[Jim]

You know it actually wasn't that wet this winter, especially given the hype of the El Nino. We had a lot of snow, but it was often dry and powdery so that the moisture to snow ratio was low. I realize March has a week left in it, and it could snow next week, but from looking at today's NWS record for Flagstaff, it really wasn't a very wet winter, and we are below normal for February and March. It all came down to the one big storm in January, which has us being above normal for the year, but we are below normal since September. If we hadn't had that freak storm we would be below normal for the year, too. Funny that the winter was once again front loaded in precipitation, when historically winters tended to be back loaded with March being the snowiest and wettest month.

I went down to Upper Lake Mary on Friday. Lake Mary is Flags main surface water reservoir. It's sitting at 28 feet, with a spillway elevation of 38 feet. Ten feet below full pool is pretty big for that lake. I don't see it coming up much more in the next month. It could, but I doubt it will reach the spillway elevation. In March of 2008 it was already over flowing by this point.

Snowbowl has April 11, 2010 as their closing date.

Watch the snow melt on the Peaks this spring. This view is better since it doesn't have the sun glare.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/webcam/late ... hp?wfo=fgz

[azbackpackr]

I went to Sunrise and learned to downhill ski today and heard they had changed their minds, and now they are planning to close this coming Sunday.

[Jim]

Wow, their business must have really dropped off.

[azbackpackr]

Yeah, I was talking to one of the instructors and she said it's too slow to make any money, and also something about it's easier for them to do payroll this way. They have so many employees running around, that place's overhead must be huge.

[Jim]

Taken from this afternoon's Flagstaff NWS forecast discussion. Is it too early to get excited? Even if it ends up being spring rain below 9000', I hope we get a good amount. Actually, I just washed all the winter grime off my car so I hope it is rain and not snow.

BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ALL FORECAST MODELS
ARE INDICATING A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES
CONCERNING TIMING AND STRENGTH...ALL MODELS AGREE ON WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE EXACT AMOUNTS ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

[azbackpackr]

Ugh. I should have gone skiing today, but I was writing a paper. There may not be too many skiing days left if we get rain.

[imike]

Taken from this afternoon's Flagstaff NWS forecast discussion. Is it too early to get excited? Even if it ends up being spring rain below 9000', I hope we get a good amount. Actually, I just washed all the winter grime off my car so I hope it is rain and not snow.

BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ALL FORECAST MODELS
ARE INDICATING A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES
CONCERNING TIMING AND STRENGTH...ALL MODELS AGREE ON WIND SPEEDS.

Hey, that wind is here early! 65 mph gusts over here with a nice steady 40mph... reorienting the White Sands Monument to a more foothills location! I'm just one mile away from the mountains and I can't see anything but a white haze.

[azbackpackr]

Yes we have the spring "breeze" over here as well.

[azbackpackr]

Early morning, the wind has died down. I need to stop doing homework and go skiing--yesterday all I did was homework and laundry. I just now went out to look at the weather (3 a.m.) and I noticed the old, icy snow in my front yard that is perpetually in the shade is almost all gone. Just a strip of ice to slip on. That moon sure is pretty. Not enough time spent outdoors lately!

[azbackpackr]

Ok, now it is 7 a.m. and snowing like crazy. I looked on the NWS forecast, and it says sunny and 56 degrees, somewhat windy today. Not a thing about clouds or precipitation. Wake up, weathermen! It's SNOWING!

Maybe I need to switch weather websites!

I am not complaining. The snow at Pole Knoll and other places I go gets very icy and slippery. When you get a couple inches of new snow on top of the packed, it makes for very good skiing because you don't have to follow any trails. You can go anywhere because it is packed underneath and it will hold your weight, and yet breaking new trail is easy because the thin fluff on top makes it fast without being icy. I am going to do some homework and see if it stops and then drive up there.

[Jim]

BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ALL FORECAST MODELS
ARE INDICATING A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THERE ARE THE USUAL INTER AND
INTRA-MODEL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TIMING AND STRENGTH...ALL MODELS
AGREE ON WIND SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON THURSDAY WHEN THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE GFS HAS
BACKED OFF IN RECENT RUNS ON THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MOGOLLON RIM.
IN ADDITION THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A SMALL BREAK IN PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
FALLING LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BLEND
OF THE ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS. WE WILL FINE TUNE THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

Any rain would be great. Rain below 8000' turning to snow after nightfall would be good, too. I just don't want to have problems driving back from the valley in the evening if its snowing.

[azbackpackr]

"developing winter storm"??? Hey there, weather dudes, it's a SPRING storm!!!

[Jim]

"developing winter storm"??? Hey there, weather dudes, it's a SPRING storm!!!

And that fact make me as skeptical about it being much of anything, as I would like to see a foot of snow or an inch of rain.

[chumley]

Looks like the models are in disagreement and the forecasts are now beginning to back off some of the earlier numbers.

LATEST MODEL RUN ACCUM BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BOTH BACK OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS...PRIMARILY DUE TO SENDING MORE ENERGY SOUTH ALONG THE AZ MEXICO BORDER...0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES

But the one model that has the most precip also has an unusually low snow level for early april ... as low as 3500 ft.

Could be an interesting couple of days this week.

[azbackpackr]

Supposed to warm up a lot afterward, though. It says 72 on Sat. for Eagar, NWS forecast.

[Jim]

Yeah, funny how a big storm which was predicted to leave 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation liquid equivalent got down graded to less than 1/2 an inch, tops. I guess thats what you get for getting excited at a late season storm. Now they are calling for 2 to 5 inches of snow, so maybe upwards of 1/2 an inch of liquid. My predication is that we don't even get 2 inches, I say we get a light dusting, and a lot of wind.

[big_load]

I wish you could have some of our rain. We're just finishing the wettest March on record, and also the wettest 12-month interval on record. The water is pretty high all around.

[Jim]

A couple of inches would be nice, but it isn't going to happen. At least it wasn't as dry as it was 3 years ago.

[azbackpackr]

We have had a bit of rain and snow all morning. Icky, cold, damp spring snow, which is better for the watershed than the nice dry powdery stuff, most of which evaporates without watering the plants.

[chumley]

Yeah, funny how a big storm which was predicted to leave 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation liquid equivalent...

April Fools from the NWS!