Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

bogus or in error

Thank you! I really was wondering about that. And apparently when I googled I got something with the wrong date, as Jim pointed out. For some reason, when I look for it, I never can find the page you linked. I need to bookmark it, I guess. I don't find the NWS site to be easily navigable.

[Jim]

Maybe in February a storm or two will impact Arizona, but the models show the atmospheric river and storm track mostly confined to the northern areas of California and inland mountain region. At least Arizona might get an abundant monsoon season if the winter is very dry.

[azbackpackr]

@Jim_H
One can always hope. I'll be in Tucson for monsoon season this year. I'd like to see a robust one. I'll be living very close to Bear Canyon (for 5 months) and it would be fun to do early morning hikes along a running creek.

[Jim]

@azbackpackr
SE AZ is due for another wet summer, maybe like 2022.

[chumley]

With January in the books, northern Arizona continues a historically dry winter. The "water year" is currently sitting at the 4th driest (begins Oct 1). The winter is driest on record in several locations (begins Dec 1), neck-and-neck with the 2005-2006 winter.

NWS Flag reports that the 05-06 winter had a similarly dry February but March and April both rebounded to near average. Those two months didn't come close to overcoming the defecit of previous months, and it's doubtful anything can happen this year to fully recover either, but getting some moisture before heat and wind take hold will be critical.

[Jim]

5 to 7 days out, so don't get too excited. Hopefully it ends up wet, but there is almost nothing in that graphic for SE AZ.

[DixieFlyer]

@Jim_H
according to the current NWS forecast, there is a 70% chance of rain at my house this Friday

[azbackpackr]

@DixieFlyer
That means you will get 70 raindrops 70 inches apart.

[chumley]

It's fizzling!

There is a 30% chance that the greater Phoenix area receives ZERO measurable rain from this storm.

[Jim]

72 hour QPF, since the storm is supposed to be between now and Saturday. Dry SE AZ with almost nothing, wet in Mohave and northern Coconino Counties. Not much for the desert, but at least some areas that have been lacking may get some precipitation. Track is just a little too far north, but that is good for Utah, Colorado, Nevada, and southern California enjoys some atmospheric river, as it is now fashionable to refer to the moisture plume.

[azbackpackr]

fashionable

Yes, we've had to get used to "haboob" (which male news readers on TV love to say). No more dust storms! A friend tells me that before I moved to AZ (I arrived in 1986) the term "monsoon" hadn't gained favor. It was just the "summer rainy season." He still calls it that. Good old plain English.

[chumley]

@azbackpackr Because it just doesn't roll off the tongue to say "we got pelted by a huge summer rainy season on our hike this afternoon".

[azbackpackr]

@chumley
But then strictly speaking, you are not pelted by a monsoon. You Are pelted by a monsoon storm, or a thunderstorm during the monsoon. Because Monsoon is not an individual storm but instead is a season. At least, that's what I'm told. And of course I always believe everything I'm told.

[chumley]

@azbackpackr Oh, I'm aware. However, I believe we are in the minority on this understanding.

[RedRoxx44]

Right now I am camped near an old mining complex in boulders in the Mojave. It’s been cold and rainy and now in low clouds so the valley below is invisible. Otherwise it’s awesome. According to weather should get up to a half inch of rain tonight. Roads could be interesting but I have plenty of food and water.

[chumley]

70% just isn't what it used to be.

There are some spots up north that have received a respectable amount of precipitation. Actual snowfall totals are pretty limited due to the warm temperatures.

[chumley]

PHX is currently registering 0.32" of rain for the day, the most rain since July 14, 2024, when 0.33" of rain was recorded (a span of 236 days). Should a stray shower add a few drops this afternoon, today could register the largest rain event at the airport since March 31, 2024, when .50" was recorded.

It's nice to see the most significant rainfall event in almost a year but it also illustrates just how much of a rainfall deficit we have been experiencing. Fingers crossed for next week which forecasts are suggesting may feature additional rainfall across the state.

[LosDosSloFolks]

@chumley
Cave Creek is currently @ 0.67" with more expected this afternoon.

[chumley]

Cave Creek

But it's still an hour drive to get groceries or go to Home Depot. And 25¢/gallon more for gas. So there are tradeoffs.

[Alston_Neal]

Enough rain at Casa de Neal to wash down the aroma of feral cat urine.