HikeArizona.COM

The endless chatter of weather.

Jim - I know you're not a real fan, but it looks like a really nice day up north today .... cloudy with steady light rain and drizzle. No severe weather. I'd say perfect day on the Kachina trail or other mostly flat stroll in the trees?

I wouldn't do much of anything on a muddy trail today. It needs to stop raining so I can pack my car to leave. We've had over an inch from this, so at least we are getting the rain, and it is widespread and steady.

chumley wrote:Jim - I know you're not a real fan, but it looks like a really nice day up north today .... cloudy with steady light rain and drizzle. No severe weather. I'd say perfect day on the Kachina trail or other mostly flat stroll in the trees?

At the Kachina TH at 9 AM today we decided to to cxl our Kachina Trail hike due to steady rain, thunder and lightning.

We ended up hiking the streets of Flagstaff and eating an early lunch at the Beaver St Brewery. I ordered a red beer and the waiter brot me this red ale stuff. I explained to him what a real red beer was: a junky beer with tomato juice. Now he knows. I did drink that red ale.... okay, but still not a red beer.

We drove up to Buffalo Park and a few people took a quick stroll in the light rain. It rained all the way to Camp Verde.

Jim_H wrote:I wouldn't do much of anything on a muddy trail today. It needs to stop raining so I can pack my car to leave. We've had over an inch from this, so at least we are getting the rain, and it is widespread and steady.

Ah that is what is great about S. Arizona. It can rain and rain and rain, but the trails are not muddy--lots of granite/gneiss gravel in the soil! I can't believe how wet the Catalinas are.

What are the chances of the lightning risk on Humprheys tapering off by Memorial Day weekend? Next week still looks less than ideal.

By Memorial Day? 100%

By Labor Day there's more uncertainty. But I'd give you at least 50-60% chance it's whimpering away by then. Of course anything can happen but the monsoon typically hangs on until the middle of September. Sometimes sooner, sometimes later. Unfortunately, it'll be one of those wait-and-see things.

Oops, I'm trying to turn back the clock and have a better summer on the replay.

I'm up in Central Utah, but I just checked the Flagstaff Airport NWS report and they had 1.15 inches of rain today in what appears to have been a heavy downpour over an hour or less. Jake, any insight into that?

Jim_H wrote:I'm up in Central Utah, but I just checked the Flagstaff Airport NWS report and they had 1.15 inches of rain today in what appears to have been a heavy downpour over an hour or less. Jake, any insight into that?

I'm in Phoenix right now, so I got nothing

I looked at the storm total on the radar. It appears that a band of heavy storms formed from just west of the airport, over the airport, and down to Mormon Mt. They were widespread, but not everywhere like the storms from a few weeks ago. Downtown had minimal impacts, and Elden looks to have been dry today.

Jim, do you think I would be nuts to camp near Doyle Saddle around Labor Day?

No, it might actually be a less windy time of year in Doyle Saddle. Cold winter days and nights, and Monsoon Season are about the only time of year it isn't always windy around Flagstaff, and since Doyle Saddle is a really windy location, Labor day may be a good time of year to camp there to avoid that. You should consider Doyle an Fremont Peaks. It will be hit or miss for rain and lightning, but the clouds are usually well above the saddle unless it is raining.

Rain here today, too.

Judging by the July and August precipitation totals, it has been a very good monsoon season for Flagstaff and we are above normal. I feel like summer is nearly at an end, and I think Labor Day is a week or two off. With that in mind, I look forward to an end to the monsoon and dry season of Autumn. Hopefully we have a slightly early end around the 10th of September or earlier.
2007, 2008, and 2009 have all been good years for December snows in Flagstaff. I hope 2010 is too, and I am hoping we get a 2 foot storm in town by the 15th of December, with enough snow to easily open the Peaks winter season not too long after. If an La Nina develops, we'll be lucky if this December isn't as bad as 2006 or 2005. Here's to a well above normal December with all snow above 8500'!

I'm still fretting about Humphreys on Labor Day weekend. Barring a freakishly clear day, I need to figure out how far I'm willing to walk into the clouds. I don't become a conductor.

If you watch the forecast and start before 8am or so you'll be fine up there. Have a back-up plan and cancel Humphrey if it's looking really active.

Hey, Flagstaff made the drought monitor. It has been wet!

For example, Flagstaff, Arizona—in a non-drought area—experienced its fourth-wettest June 15 – August 24 period on record, with 9.54 inches of rain. Flagstaff’s only wetter such periods occurred in 1904 (9.97 inches), 1919 (10.33 inches), and 1986 (14.25 inches). Flagstaff received at least an inch of rain on July 18, 26, 30, and August 7 and 23, nearing its 1986 standard of six monsoon days with precipitation totaling at least an inch.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

Flagstaff is center and 2/3rds of the way up. If you use a ruler on this map, you will see it's in the white "none" area.

No it's not Winter yet. It's not even Autumn yet, the best season in Arizona.

azbackpackr wrote:UGH!!!!!!! Stop talking about COLD WEATHER!!!!!

I'll second that!!!