Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

My snowshoes are such cheap pieces of junk. I was looking at some nice Tubbs at 4 Seasons the other day. Not sure what you meant about heel lift or something you told me about???

I want to get a good pair and will save the crummy pair as loaners.

[Jim]

I class Tubbs in the low quality class, and I have seen people try to use them on steep slopes and fail. The heel elevator is just what it sounds like. If the sales staff doesn't know what it is, they don't know anything about snowshoes and I wouldn't buy from them. MSR might be the only company that makes a shoe with the heel elevator. It is good for saving your calves when hiking uphill. If you think you will ever encounter rock, you want a steel crampon, not aluminum as I think Tubbs sells.

I have a 2007 model of this:
http://www.rei.com/product/805328
My shoes have taken a beating on rock and snow/ice on the Peaks, and on Whitney nearly 2 years ago, and they are still in very good shape. I guess I have only done those two mountains in winter. Either way, the MSR shoes (and the more expensive ones are even nicer) are well built and made specifically for tough terrain as found in mountaineering. Unless you only ever plan to use them for level stuff, get an MSR shoe, and one with the metal heel elevator makes travel upslope much, much easier.
Skip additional tails for the shoe unless you plan to ski in them.

[azbackpackr]

Ok, will look into those. If you think those Tubbs are bad, you ought to see my cheapo pair!

[BobP]

I love my Tubbs...my partner one time was wearing MSR's which broke...but they were 14 years old ;) . My Tubbs have a heel lift...They were about $160 on sale from $220 . I have a pair of Atlas which aren't as aggressive and kick up too much snow but they're good to let people borrow.

[Jim]

Guess the only experience I have with Tubbs are the ones people have brought out. Maybe they were cheap because thats what they wanted or thats what was sold. I notice a lot of what the "outdoor" places in Flagstaff sell is the cheap stuff. What is your crampon made of? Then the big thing I mention is the edge of the shoe. The metal frame bounces off of hard snow when going up stuff, where the MSR digs in. My experience. While I will always admit that a lot of it comes down to personal preference, I would never recommend anything other than an MSR shoe, or one which resembles it.

What broke on the shoe?

[BobP]

What is your crampon made of?

Carbon steel...it also has carbon steel rails which are more aggressive then the msr denali(which I also liked).

[Jim]

Then the Tubbs brand must have made some cheap junk that people brought out. Kinda like a car company producing a cheap "starter model", Tubbs gave me a bad impression of their brand by selling junk that bent up. How about the frame?

[Jim]

The following is from the Flagstaff NWS 945 AM discussion:

TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SIGNAL A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER.

THESE LONG DRY PERIODS COULD CONTINUE THIS YEAR AS THE LA NINA PHASE
OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION TYPICALLY KEEPS THE WINTER STORM TRACK
AND JET STREAM FURTHER NORTH. THIS MEANS MORE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOWER CHANCES FOR WINTER STORM
ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HOW LA NINA MAY
IMPACT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF AND CLICK THE LINK NEAR THE TOP OF OUR PAGE
CALLED...POSSIBLE LA NINA IMPACTS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

The "storm" that is forecast for Sunday and Monday is not going to be much, and might be just wind and colder temps.

Has anyone heard of a company called dryday? They have a website and produce a free 1 month forecast. It's reliability is questionable, but it seems to match the short term forecast out to mid-month. If they are accurate, and there is a lot of room for speculation with many variables, the next storm could be around the solstice, and then one around new year.
http://www.dryday.com/united-states/ari ... -forecast/

Either way, I strongly question a Snowbowl opening by the 21st, 25th or 1st of the year. It would be nice if they got what they needed, but only time will tell.

[PaleoRob]

There are almost 2 feet of snow on the Kaibab south of Jacob Lake. I should have brought my snow shoes with how much posthole action was going on.

[chumley]

I don't know anything about dryday, but I'm hoping they're right. It's a little bit early to tell if a storm will come in around the solstice, but its starting to be clear that it will be pretty dry until then.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. LONG TERM FORECAST PROJECTIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS DRY WEATHER PERIOD MAY LAST THROUGH MID
DECEMBER.

[Jim]

I'm hoping for the Friday to Sunday before the solstice to be a banner series of several powerful storms complete with deep subtropical taps and snow levels that start around 7000' and fall to 4000'.

[chumley]

I'm not picky about the dates. I'll gladly accept that scenario anytime between now and the end of April. At least 4 or 5 times would be preferable.

[Jim]

Well, I'm still hoping to do my full moon hike up on Humphrey. I can't do it if storming, and I am questioning whether it is worth doing if there is basically no snow as it is now. I can still overnight, but I can do that next week during the warm period. Why can't I just dial up the weather?

[Jim]

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET AND MOIST FLOW PUSHING
INTO CALIFORNIA. FORECAST MODELS...GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS FAST FLOW ACROSS
CALIFORNIA...INTO NEVADA AND UTAH. FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL
VALUES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS...MOISTURE...AND UPSLOPE
FLOW...MAY INTRODUCE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS.
&&

--NWS

So, it looks like Dryday might be pretty accurate with at least the chance of lows in an area in the near long-term. I wonder if this will be the next big thing, the dump we've been looking for, and the storm which finally opens up the Peaks for winter, real winter, not this tease we had which is slowly fading to nothing. I canceled the full moon hike due to poor conditions. Will I need to put it back up?

[chumley]

I'm betting the high-pressure ridge keeps the flow too far north. But hoping that it weakens and lets it drop south a little. I doubt it will get to the White Mtns either way. Hopefully Flag gets some love though.

[Jim]

Hard to say at this point. The LA/ OXNARD NWS discussion talked about this being the leading edge of a change in the pattern that sets up a cooler, wetter period. If that is true, then perhaps late next week and into the weekend will be a several day wet period with some good moist lows. I say it's still too early to to tell, and often they get a little over predictive in early season (and late season too). At this early date, the forecast is calling for a chance of rain in Flag with a snow level around 7100'. I would be OK with rain, especially if the Peaks got a good wet snow. Actually, from my snowshoe perspective, a heavy wet snow is better to start things off on as it coats stuff and provides a stable base to start putting powder on top of. I'm spinning around at two howling moons to get this thing going my way.

[azbackpackr]

Honestly, I hope we have a very mild winter. We have not had one in quite a long time. In fact, the last really, truly mild winter in the White Mtns. I remember was 1999-2000. I remember going backpacking in South Fork in February, no snow on the ground at all. I like snow sports, too, but am ready for a drought winter. Of course, then the following summer will be heaven for the fire fighters... And there would be very little spring river running. Hmmm.... Ok, I changed my mind. I want there to be spring river running for sure...

I guess we can wonder about it all we want to, but we sure don't have any control over it!

[Jim]

True, and mild doesn't mean dry, necessarily. In fact it could be very much as it has been this last week and near normal precipitation if there was a higher snow line, say over 7000'. In fact, I wouldn't mind (for as long as I am here in Flag until the end of January) to have a milder winter. It's easier on the bank account, and things aren't shut down the way it is in a cold one with a snow pack. I would still like town to get precipitation and snow, but I would be OK with rain that turns to snow overnight or as systems pull away. You know, half to an inch of rain followed by 4 to 6 inches of wet snow that melts in a few days, but that probably is too specific to come true. As long as it is all snow over 8000 to 8500 feet, mild is great for me.

[Jim]

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY MID WEEK. THE STORM TRACK WILL MOVE
FURTHER SOUTH AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE FIRST OF TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
DYNAMICS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS FAR
OUT...HOWEVER THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS. THE DEC 10TH 06Z GFS MODEL IS RUNNING
SLIGHTLY DRIER ON THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WHILE THE DEC 10TH 00Z EUROPEAN
MODEL IS FORECASTING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE SECOND TROUGH THAN BOTH THE GFS MODEL AND
PREVIOUS EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS. OVERALL IT APPEARS THIS PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD AT LEAST BRING SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHLAND
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND TIMING STILL A BIT HAZY THIS FAR OUT

---NWS

So, it could be substantial, but 7 to 10 days out a lot can change.

[azbackpackr]

Yeah. Shoot. Wish these things knew how to time themselves, staying within work week. I had planned to drive up to the Ferry/Marble Canyon a week from today. I have now decided to wait and see. I hate driving 89 in bad weather. It is bad enough in good weather. Ever notice how the four lane road stops right at the Rez? Politics? 89 is so busy, it should be 4 lanes all the way to Page.