Atmosphere Comparison

Jim · Post by **Jim** » May 15 2009 8:25 pm

The endless chatter of weather.

joebartels · Post by **joebartels** » Aug 24 2015 8:22 am

Looking at the 15 day forecast... gotta dig
We see overnight lows dipping below 80 in the Valley on Sept 7th. Along the way we take one more ride up to 110 on Saturday.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Aug 24 2015 8:34 am

We'll probably get more rain, too, which despite what I was saying before, and despite how I feel about haboobs at 10 AM, getting rained and hailed on while on the Peaks (near the Cirque as I had great luck on Humphrey), and humidity in general, most of the area between Sunset Point and the pines south of Flag on I-17, a lot of the area in Sedona, and the south slope of Elden, all look rather dry, or did on Friday. The reporting stations record a lot or normal rainfall, but it seems like that isn't representative for most areas.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Aug 24 2015 8:53 am

joe bartels wrote:Looking at the 15 day forecast

I'm not sure what the accuracy percentage of the 15-day forecast is. I'm sure it is documented though. A forecast temperature range is very likely more accurate than the probability of precipitation forecast two weeks away. It would be fun to look at the forecast for 9/7 every day between now and then and watch how it changes, and then compare them all to what actually happens.

joebartels · Post by **joebartels** » Aug 24 2015 9:10 am

A couple weeks ago the forecast for yesterday was 99.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Aug 24 2015 9:14 am

@joe bartels
Only off by 8

I wonder if the biggest factor in those medium range forecasts isn't just plain old climatological average for that calendar date!? (yesterday's avg was 104 though, actual 107)

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Aug 24 2015 9:19 am

For 9/7, the average high is 101, and the average low is 81. (Period of record 2000-2015)

sneakySASQUATCH · Post by **sneakySASQUATCH** » Aug 24 2015 5:58 pm

My wife is visiting Phoenix this weekend and pulled up the forecast looks like your lows are higher than our highs.
I'm pretty sure she's going to melt since she has gotten acclimated and thinks our highs are warm.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Aug 27 2015 3:54 pm

Impressive storms today are dropping a lot of rain over the eastern Mazzies, Sierra Ancha, eastern Supes and Tonto Basin.

NWS estimates over 4" in some spots, with large areas of more than 3". Flood Warnings are in effect, but so far none of the USGS gauges in the area are showing any movement.

A big storm is affecting the northwest valley and heading toward central Phoenix. Will be interesting to see if it holds together.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Aug 27 2015 4:09 pm

FYI - Little known HAZ feature includes built-in live radar as well as rainfall estimates.

Click the "radar" icon in the lower left corner anytime you are on a HAZ Map page (http://hikearizona.com/map.php)

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Aug 27 2015 4:50 pm

Downtown Tempe is getting destroyed right now

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Aug 27 2015 5:27 pm

It rained a bit in Flag today when I was hiking, etc., but sounds like the bulk of it is to the south! Whee! I'm going to have to look at the river data page. It's sort of like living vicariously, via that page, seeing the gauges go up.

The_N · Post by **The_N** » Aug 27 2015 5:32 pm

@chumley
Storms started early again today on the Mogollon Rim, similar to the ones last weekend, developing in the morning hours. Temps were in the 70s but I played it safe this time and watched from the sidelines. Saw a group of hikers come out of See Canyon clad in ponchos and all carrying trekking poles in a thunderstorm.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Aug 27 2015 6:05 pm

1.05" at my house so far, the gauge near asu read .96" and based on the street flooding at that gauge versus downtown Tempe flooding I'd estimate about double the rain there. Over 2" seems likely. It came down fast and sideways. Fun afternoon

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Aug 29 2015 8:31 pm

Saturday night dance party!

In like a lamb... Out like a lion. Nice monsoon last hurrah!

tibber · Post by **tibber** » Aug 30 2015 9:50 am

well at least I got to drive thru it (the blowing dust and water bucket rain). Haven't been caught in that for quite some time. Had a cousin in town so she got to experience it as well

.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Aug 31 2015 11:13 am

A triple-quad!

Nice photos!

http://www.sciencealert.com/three-categ ... -same-time

tibber · Post by **tibber** » Aug 31 2015 12:07 pm

chumley wrote:A triple-quad!

Nice photos!

http://www.sciencealert.com/three-categ ... -same-time

quite interesting. On the last Titanic expedition where they were creating the 3D ship to explain so much more about the event, there were two hurricanes approaching the site so they had to pull away until the hurricanes passed.

I guess we'll have to see what happens with the Triple Quad, now that I know what you mean.

Tough_Boots · Post by **Tough_Boots** » Aug 31 2015 8:36 pm

hail in central phoenix tonight

rwstorm · Post by **rwstorm** » Aug 31 2015 8:38 pm

Bombs away!!

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Aug 31 2015 8:40 pm

3 of the last 6 days here in Tempe.

Each one with over .75" of rain. Very impressive. Though I know it's been local and not valley-wide.

Some of the totals tonight are impressive across Central Phoenix. Several in the 1-1.25" range.

Atmosphere Comparison

Atmosphere Comparison

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

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Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

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Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!